136 pitches on a franchise arm...
May. 10th, 2005 11:13 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
wwilliam47For those of y'all who aren't aware, I'm an unrepentant Cubs fan. Had my heart broken by them at the ripe old age of 6 in 1984, and with a brief hiatus occasioned by the '94 strike, I've been following them ever since.
So it's early in the season. Your starting superstar shortstop has slumped and then torn his groin, likely done for the year. Your starting second baseman is on the shelf with a bum knee. One of your top 3 starting pitchers has been fighting a bum shoulder since spring training. You're trying to snap a 7 game losing streak where almost every game was eminently winnable. Your bullpen is flaky. And you've got the best arm in the franchise allowing one run through the end of the 8th, with a one run lead. He's throwing well, but pushing 120 pitches. That's officially A Lot.
Do you let him start the ninth?
Apparently.
Do you keep him in when his control is looking shaky and he's starting to overthrow and his sinker looks flat?
Apparently you do that too.
Do you win the game?
Yes.
Does he make his next start?
Probably not.
Is snapping a losing streak in May worth risking a 25-year-old ace pitcher's health?
Good question. The human element is always hard to figure in baseball. I'd tend to say no, given the catastrophic series of injuries the Cubs have already suffered and their current record--but that involves being willing to punt on your team's morale in May. Dusty Baker has built a reputation as a good manager based on his people skills, so I'm willing to suppose that running Z out to finish the game was a calculated decision to improve the team's morale. Is the difference in morale from that going to be a greater benefit than the difference in the standings from Z being less effective next start? Somehow I doubt it.
So it's early in the season. Your starting superstar shortstop has slumped and then torn his groin, likely done for the year. Your starting second baseman is on the shelf with a bum knee. One of your top 3 starting pitchers has been fighting a bum shoulder since spring training. You're trying to snap a 7 game losing streak where almost every game was eminently winnable. Your bullpen is flaky. And you've got the best arm in the franchise allowing one run through the end of the 8th, with a one run lead. He's throwing well, but pushing 120 pitches. That's officially A Lot.
Do you let him start the ninth?
Apparently.
Do you keep him in when his control is looking shaky and he's starting to overthrow and his sinker looks flat?
Apparently you do that too.
Do you win the game?
Yes.
Does he make his next start?
Probably not.
Is snapping a losing streak in May worth risking a 25-year-old ace pitcher's health?
Good question. The human element is always hard to figure in baseball. I'd tend to say no, given the catastrophic series of injuries the Cubs have already suffered and their current record--but that involves being willing to punt on your team's morale in May. Dusty Baker has built a reputation as a good manager based on his people skills, so I'm willing to suppose that running Z out to finish the game was a calculated decision to improve the team's morale. Is the difference in morale from that going to be a greater benefit than the difference in the standings from Z being less effective next start? Somehow I doubt it.
